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) In 38 of the 61 years from 1950 to 2010, the S&P (Standard and Poor's 500 Index) finished higher after the first five days

  1. ) In 38 of the 61 years from 1950 to 2010, the S&P (Standard and Poor's 500 Index) finished higher after the first five days of trading. In 33 of those 38 years the S&P 500 finished higher for the year. An investor wishes to get an idea whether a good first week is a good omen for the upcoming year. The relationship between the first-week and annual performance over tis 61-year period is given by the following table

S&P 500's annual performance

First week

Higher

Lower

Higher

33

5

Lower

12

11

  1. If a year isselected at random, what is the probability that the S&P finished higher for the year?
  2. Given that the S&P finished higher after the first five days of trading, what is the probability that it finished higher for the year?
  3. Are the two events, first-week performance and annual performance, statistically independent? Explain.

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