In April 2015, Teva Pharmaceuticals launched a $40 billion hostile bid for Mylan Pharmaceuticals, which was itself trying to acquire the Perrigo Company (another pharmaceutical company) in a $36 billion hostile deal. As reported in an FT article from April 2015:

The value of Mylans bid for Perrigo is hotly disputed because the value of Mylans shares is being inflated by takeover interest from Teva. Mylans stock price would likely fall if Tevas approach were to fail, leading to a corresponding decline in the value of its offer for Perrigo. Mylan said the value of its new offer was $232.23 per Perrigo share, based on its closing stock price on April 8, the day after the market reacted to its initial proposal. However, that valuation is contested by Perrigos board, which considers Mylans offer to be $202.20, based on Mylans stock price on March 10, just before it was rumored that Teva would make a bid for Mylan.

Teva also stated that its bid for Mylan is conditional on Mylan dropping its bid for Perrigo. In other words, the probability that both deals are completed is 0%.

-Mylans stock closed at $55.31 on 10 March, the day before rumors appeared regarding Tevas interest in making a takeover bid.

- Mylans stock closed on 31 April 2015 at $71.35.

-Tevas bid for Mylan is $82 per share.

-You may assume that Tevas bid is an all-cash bid, and you may assume that interest rates are zero.

Given this information, what is the markets assessment of the probability that the Teva-Mylan deal will be completed?