Question
In early 2017, fiscal and monetary expansion have led to a sizeable rebound in the Chinese economy since the second half of last year. Cheap
In early 2017, fiscal and monetary expansion have led to a sizeable rebound in the Chinese economy since the second half of last year. Cheap credit, tax cuts, more spending on infrastructure, the pull of state investment or a real estate sector whose prices defy the laws of gravity have fed the giant, which has also benefited from the increase in the price of raw materials and a recovery considerable amount of its powerful industry and exports. In March, China's sales abroad grew by 22.3%, the highest rate in the last two years. During the first quarter, investment increased by 9.2%, but it is still largely driven by public companies (13.6%) and not by the private sector (7.7%). However, a recovery in private investment is observed in these three months if we compare it with last year, when its spending was meager, due to the increase in confidence in the economy. Expenditure on infrastructure shot up 23.5% and investment in the real estate sector increased by 9.1%, two percentage points more than the first three months of 2016, as a result of the rise in housing prices experienced especially in cities largest in the past year.
This 6.9% is above the economic growth target set by Beijing for this year, of around 6.5%, and slightly exceeds analysts' forecasts. "China experienced a good start to the year, the indicators are better than expected," Mao Shengyong, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference. However, analysts warn that the effect of the stimuli is going down and that this boom is only in the short term. The People's Bank of China, the monetary regulator, has raised interest rates on various instruments it uses to control the system's liquidity in recent months, seen as an attempt to reduce debt growth - which is already 260% of GDP-, and control the bubbles that have formed in some sectors. Dozens of cities in the country have taken measures to curb housing prices, which will limit the growth of the real estate sector in the short term.
Furthermore, booming housing and commodity prices in recent months have buoyed activity in sectors with a huge overcapacity problem that are part of what Beijing calls "the old growth engines." These are industries from which the authorities, in theory, want to get away to cede the throne to the service sector, but the Communist Party has opted for stability and job creation to ensure that, at least economically, the path to congress of training at the end of the year be as smooth as possible. Proof of the acceleration of the secondary sector in the country is that industrial production grew by 7.6% in March, a figure that had not been seen since the end of 2014. "China's economy continued to experience strong growth in the past quarter and the good March data suggests that some of this strength is likely to carry over into the second quarter," Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "However, with the credit growth that has helped fuel the recovery now reversing, we expect the economy to start to slow down before long," he added.
Explain the consequences that could occur in the goods market and in the money market.
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