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In Lecture 5, we developed a Decision Tree model to help structure a decision regarding whether or not to proceed with Research and Development in
In Lecture 5, we developed a Decision Tree model to help structure a decision regarding whether or not to proceed with Research and Development in pursuit of a patent on some intellectual property. The resultant Decision Tree has an EMV of $15.5M, as shown below. Before proceeding we've discussed our Market Development projections with a consultant, and they have adjusted our projections to indicate that High Demand should be 57, Medium Demand should be 35, and Low Demand should be 16. What is the resultant EMV when you make these changes? (Input your answer correct to 4 decimal places.) E F G H 1 J TRUE 70.0% License 25 23 Patent 70.0% 0 Decision 23 0.0% High Demand 25.0% 55 43 FALSE Chance Develop - 10 22.9 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 0.0% Medium Demand 55.0% 33 21 20.0% 0.0% Low Demand 15 3 TRUE Proceed Chance 15.5 -2 30.0% 30.0% No Patent 0 Decision IR&D 31 15.5 FALSE 0.0% 32 33 Discontinue 0 0 In Lecture 5, we developed a Decision Tree model to help structure a decision regarding whether or not to proceed with Research and Development in pursuit of a patent on some intellectual property. The resultant Decision Tree has an EMV of $15.5M, as shown below. Before proceeding we've discussed our Market Development projections with a consultant, and they have adjusted our projections to indicate that High Demand should be 57, Medium Demand should be 35, and Low Demand should be 16. What is the resultant EMV when you make these changes? (Input your answer correct to 4 decimal places.) E F G H 1 J TRUE 70.0% License 25 23 Patent 70.0% 0 Decision 23 0.0% High Demand 25.0% 55 43 FALSE Chance Develop - 10 22.9 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 0.0% Medium Demand 55.0% 33 21 20.0% 0.0% Low Demand 15 3 TRUE Proceed Chance 15.5 -2 30.0% 30.0% No Patent 0 Decision IR&D 31 15.5 FALSE 0.0% 32 33 Discontinue 0 0
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