In mid-2009, Bright Rite had BBB-rated, 6-year bonds outstanding with a yield to maturity of 17.3%. At the time, similar maturity Treasuries had a yield of 3%. Suppose the market risk premium is 5% and you believe Bright Right bonds have a beta of 0.31. The expected loss rate of these bonds in the event of default is 60%.

1. What annual probability of default would be consistent with the yield to maturity of these bonds in mid-2009?
2. In mid-2015, Bright Rite bonds had a yield of 7.1%, while similar maturity Treasuries had a yield of 1.5%. What probability of default would you estimate now?