In response to the emerging hazardous waste crisis considered as part of last week's assignment and the public outcry by human rights and environmental advocates around the world, the United Nations has organized an international conference in Toronto to address this issue. Among the participating nations are these key parties:

• United States (exporter)
• European Union (exporter)
• China (exporter and importer)
• Nigeria (importer)
• Mexico (importer)

For the initial meeting, the parties will have to establish an agenda that will include the topics to be discussed, the order in which they will be discussed, and present their opening statements.

The Specific Circumstances of the Negotiation

Imagine a fictionalized world, occurring in the late spring of 2023…

The world is much as it is now, apart from COVID-19, which has not appeared. Also, in this fictional world, neither Donald Trump nor Joe Biden are presidents of the United States. The political situation in all the major nations is a bit different than it is right now, but still recognizable to the informed observer. No major military conflicts have been initiated in the past few years. Despite a long-simmering trade war between the United States and China, although growth has become stagnant, the global economy had managed to avoid falling into a recession. However, many economists were warning of numerous warning signs that, unless significant steps were taken, one was likely on the horizon.

However, most germane to the situation at hand, in the imaginary spring of 2021 the World Health Organization released an impeccably researched longitudinal study of the impact of hazardous waste exposure in vulnerable areas of Mexico. Not only did the study establish widespread, horrifying illnesses from exposure to various hazardous substances, it also implicated numerous waste disposal sites in Mexico, which receive a large amounts of waste from other nations, as a prime culprit. The study claimed that thousands of Mexicans had suffered death or serious illness from these dumps over the past twenty years. Pictures of children who had suffered deformities and other injuries quickly circulated on the internet, sparking renewed global calls to address the issue of exportation, storage, and disposal of hazardous waste.

Widespread public condemnation of inaction on the issue was heightened when, late in 2021, another study was released, this time focusing on waste disposal sites in Nigeria. The results were every bit as dire as had been seen in Mexico. Both nations had been accepting large amounts of foreign waste, with storage facilities that might most charitably be described as antiquated. This time public outcry was sufficient to compel a high-level international conference on the issue, hosted by the Canadian government in Toronto. That conference, consisting of five stakeholding groups, is now about to begin. Their respective domestic political situations are discussed below.

In Mexico, the left-wing, populist political party, which had swept to power in the 2018 elections, remained in power. However, the popular Mexican President only served briefly, dying of a heart attack, after serving less than a year in office. As required under the Mexican Constitution, an interim President was appointed, with a special election to follow fourteen months later. A political outsider, a charismatic female federal prosecutor, rapidly ascended the leadership ladder of the left-wing party, becoming a legitimate candidate after spearheading a corruption probe that uncovered, among other things, scandals in federal offices charged with regulating the flow of hazardous waste. Although she gained the conviction of several major government officials, no foreign nation was formally implicated in the scandal. Campaigning as a populist, she used the highly unpopular U.S. President as a prop, blaming him for treating Mexico with disrespect and attempting to impose unfair trade policies on her nation. She often used the example of U.S. companies going unpunished for their participation in ongoing hazardous waste dumping ventures, including those implicated in the World Health Organization study. The strategy worked and she was swept into the office late in the winter of 2020. At the recent press conference, she expressed skepticism about the outcome of this conference, worrying that it would simply be another photo opportunity for western powers to claim to be acting to address environmental issues, while actually doing nothing meaningful to address those problems. In fact, had it not been for her longtime friendship with the Canadian Prime Minister she might not have sent a delegation from Mexico at all. It took the personal intervention of the Canadian Prime Minister, along with the pomp and circumstance of a state visit, to convince her to attend, alongside her delegation.

In the United States, the nation elected a new President late in 2020, after the incumbent decided against seeking re-election in favor of establishing his own television network and media conglomerate. The winner of the election was a former mayor of an iconic American city, who had also been a tremendously successful businessman, having built an impressive media empire in the decade following his time serving as mayor. He had run against the President’s populist, anti-internationalist foreign policy, positioning himself as a centrist political candidate at a time when the nation needed to find a middle ground. His free-market, neo-liberal economics, tempered with a willingness to use market mechanisms to achieve socially desirable outcomes, were popular in a nation that had been locked in a destructive trade war with China for the past few years. With the country teetering on the edge of a recession, the calm demeanor of the successful businessman and former mayor resonated with a restive public, allowing him to claim a narrow electoral victory. However, while his party claimed a decisive victory in the House of Representatives, in the Senate the seats were evenly split between the two parties, forcing the new President to navigate especially challenging political terrain. Given that the Senate is required to approve treaties under the U.S Constitution, and that the new President hoped to forge new trade deals with Mexico and other nations, the upcoming conference in Toronto was very much of concern to the President.

In China, the long-serving leader was relieved that he had a fresh negotiating partner in the new President, as the Chinese economy had suffered significantly during the ongoing trade war with the United States. The Chinese President was encouraged that his new partner was no friend of protectionist economic policy and would likely push his nation toward re-engagement with international institutions, which had not been the case under the administration of his predecessor. However, given that their national interests diverged on many issues, the experienced Chinese leader also recognized the new President was not only a potential partner but also an adversary. During the trade war, China had suspended all contracts with American companies to dispose of hazardous waste on its soil, which ramped up the overhead costs for U.S. companies, while allowing China to reduce the amount of hazardous waste it was exporting. If a trade deal could be struck with the new U.S. President, such barriers might come down, requiring China to increase the exportation of its own waste. Whether China favored such an outcome was unclear. Due to the uncertainty around their position regarding restrictions on hazardous waste transfers, they appeared to be a wildcard in the upcoming talks.

Following the tumult of the Brexit debate, the European Union had hung together, in some ways becoming an even more cohesive political body as time went on. However, the diversity of national interests on the issue of hazardous waste has made it difficult thus far to find common ground. There is a widespread hope that, with a new administration in place, the United States might join the Basel Convention. Moreover, although moving to more modern, green technology regarding the disposal of hazardous waste has widespread popular support among the public, many of the member nations simply lack the financial resources to establish the necessary infrastructure. This is frustrating to many member nations, given that, due to recent developments, some of the best new technology in the storage and disposal industry is emerging among European businesses. With that said, there is concern among some analysts that any attempt to impose stronger standards on member nations might weaken the Union at a critical point in time. Similarly, some European diplomats privately expressed concerns about how some member states may have conducted their hazardous waste trade with parties in developing nations, which might further divide the Union.

In Nigeria, there is a new leader on the scene, after the elderly President, widely respected for his calm demeanor and lack of corruption, passed away. His replacement, a middle-aged military officer who was considered a firebrand speaker, would be hopeful of positive results at the Toronto conference, in order to help establish the legitimacy of his recently empaneled regime. He had stoked public anger over the disclosure of the damage to the country from the improperly disposed of hazardous waste, promising to get justice for Nigeria. The new leader has also suggested that he may be able to gain access to valuable new technology, which would alleviate the problem going forward. However, he is seen by many analysts as proceeding unnecessarily slowly with the investigation of which foreign companies may have been involved in the damage. When questioned by the international press, he tersely responded that there were national security issues involved, before abruptly ending the press conference.

The Specific Situation You Are Confronting

As a high-level OAS advisor to the Mexican government, you have been asked to observe and offer input on the vital negotiations about to unfold in Toronto. As you sit down to meet with the senior diplomat on the Mexican delegation, they explained the dynamics of the negotiations to you as follows.

Together with Nigeria, we co-chair a coalition of countries that have traditionally been the recipients of both legal and illegal exports of hazardous electronic waste and lead-acid batteries. As a result, we typically would closely coordinate interventions on behalf of the coalition with Nigeria. The coalition stresses the importance of addressing the multitude of problems “as soon and as aggressively as possible” as each passing day, “tons of toxic substances flow into our countries which results in untold health problems and environmental damage both short and long-term.” In addition, you may want to urge that the developed nations provide significant financial, logistical, and technical resources to help the recipient countries address these problems immediately and for the foreseeable future.

As the strategy is discussed within the coalition, it becomes clear that without discussion concerning financial, logistical, and technical resources along with firm commitments from the developed world, the conference would not yield the progress and real-world solutions that your governments expected and demanded. Your coalition brought technical experts and advisors to the conference and is ready to negotiate policy proposals as well as conduct preliminary cost estimates on potential solutions you have already researched. However, some members of the coalition prefer strong restrictions, in some cases an outright ban, on the exportation of hazardous waste, such as that considered under the Basel Convention. Other nations would prefer reform of the present market system, involving tighter regulation, higher transfer fees, and/or low or no-cost transfer of safe disposal and storage technology from industrialized powers.

However, the coalition represents only a part of Mexico’s interests at this conference, given the recent environmental disaster that has occurred in the country. We have come into possession of information indicating that not only were numerous U.S. companies involved in causing the damage but several major companies from E.U. nations were also involved in the disaster. Thus far, we have managed to keep this information quiet, but we obviously would like to use it to extract concessions from the E.U. and the U.S. at this conference. In particular, Mexico has a strong interest in obtaining funds to help with cleanup efforts, as well as obtaining access to green technology to mitigate future damage. However, our Nigerian negotiating partners do not seem to want to press too quickly at the start of the conference, which is already causing some tension between the delegations. Such tension could undermine our joint efforts.

The Assignment

Please send the senior Mexican diplomat a concise executive-style memo of between 700-1000 words, which addresses the following issues:

1) Suggestions for priority agenda items, and the order in which they should be considered

2) An estimated BATNA for each of the parties attending the conference (including Mexico)

3) Three suggested tools of Talk Power that might be deployed in the interest of advancing Mexico’s proposed negotiating strategy