In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.with y-axis tick marks of 10¹=10, 10²=100, 10³=1000, 10⁴=10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced.

Technology is one areawhere progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors,etc.

The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008.At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis ... it's not linear. Fromthe graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seemto support this.

Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992?

Part B: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2012. Using your estimate andMoore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in2040?

Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not?

Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Centrig 2400 SPARC MT. 6 GC2 IPU -core AMD Epyc IBM 213 Storage Controll Apple A12% Bionic 10,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswel-ES Ggra Xavier SoC Xbox One main SoC Jalcomm Snapdragon Box/SCx8180 5,000,000,000 81-core Jeon Pro H Silicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-CON POWER HiSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-Ball cove Core 7 Broadwell S Six-core Xeon 7400, dragon 835 Dual-core Itanium 20 AGau arcan 7 Broadwell-U ludd core . GPUIG12 Core I Strylake K 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Presler POWERE Quad-core : GPU Core I Haswell Apple A7 (dual-core ARMS# "mobile SoC" "Core IT Quad) 500,000,000 Hanium 2 Madison BO are 2 0 0 Wah- Pentium D Smithfold Duo Conroe Itarium 2 Mckinleyo Core 2 Duo Wolldale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO are 2 Duo Allendale 100,000,000 AMD KB entium 4 Cedar Mill `Pentium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwood "Q QBarton Pentium 4 Willamoftoo @Atom Pentium II Mobile Dixon "Pentium II Tualatin AMD K7 % Pentium III Copperming OARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6-II Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD Ke B OP 5,000,000 Pentium Prog Pentium AND KS Intel 80480 1,000,000 500,000 I Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip ARMITOO Intel 803840 9ARM 3 Motorola 08020 0 100,000 Intel 80286 50,000 Qintel 80180 Intel 8080@ @Intel 8088 OARM 2 RAAM 1 Motomia C818 10,000 TMS 1000 Zilog 28Q 5,000 RICA 1802 9 pel 9085 Intel 8006 Infol 8080 205 Technology Intel 400 1,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 11 50,000,000,000 72-core Xeon Phi Conbig 2400 SPARC MT OCC2 IPU 32-come AMID Epye IBM 213 Stragg Controller, Apple A 12X Bionic 10 10,000,000,000 18-core Xeon Haswell-65. Tegra XamMor SOC Xbox One man Soc Quailcomm Snapdragon BOX/SCX8180 5,000,000,000 $-core Xoon Pul 972 "HiSilicon Kirin 980 + Apple A12 Bionic 12-core POWER `HSilicon Kirin 710 8-core Xeon Nehalem-FX. Di-core Core ' Broadwell! Six-com Xem 740 Qualcomm Snapdigon 835 Dual core Itanium 20 Dual core + GPU Ins Cote if Broadwal-U Quad core + GPU GT2 Com IT Skylake K 9 1,000,000,000 Pentium D Preeder POWERD Quad-core + GPU Core 17 Haswell "Apple AT (dual-core ARMC4 "mobile SoC" 500,000,000 9 MB cached Hanium 2 Mad son BMO AMD X10 quad-gore 2M L3 Com 2 Duo Wolcak Pentium D Smithhidds gre ? Duo Conroe Itanium 2 Mckinley " Core 2 Duo Wolldale 3M Pentium 4 Prescott-2MQ ()Core 2 Duo Allendale 8 100,000,000 AMD. KB "Pentium 4 Cedar Mill Pertium 4 Prescott 50,000,000 Pentium 4 Northwoods Barton Pentium 4 Willamette `Pentium II Tuslain Pentium II Mobile Dkong AMD RT @ @Pentium Ill Coppermine #AHM Cortex-A9 AMD 106-1 7 Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD KE O 0Parfum IT Deschutes 5,000,000 Pentium Prog Pentiumg AMDES Intel 00480 6 1,000,000 500,000 1 Explorer's 32 06 Lap machine chip ARMYCO Intel 803840 9ARM 3 Motorola 60020 0 O EC WRI 5 100,000 Imel 80286 50,000 Pintel 80186 Intel 80859 9 1me1 5008 QARM 2 ARM 6 ARM 1 MOKTOR 9 4 10,000 TMS 1000 2log 280 RCA 1802 3 5,000 wintel 8085 Intel 8004 MOS Technology 9 Intel Acid 3 1,000 70 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 184 1986 1988 1990 19 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (hlips:/en.wikipedia orgywiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser