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In the first seven 2022 regular-season games, incumbent starter Matt Ryan completed 203 passes in 297 attempts, a completion rate of 68%. You are
In the first seven 2022 regular-season games, incumbent starter Matt Ryan completed 203 passes in 297 attempts, a completion rate of 68%. You are hired by the Colts as a consulting data scientist to evaluate Ehlinger's recent passing efforts in the context of Ryan's baseline completion rate from this season. Use Monte Carlo simulation with one hundred thousand (100000) simulations to calculate a p-value under the null hypothesis. Report your findings in the following four sections: 1) Question: Summarize the question that you are investigating with this hypothesis test. 2) Approach: What approach/statistical method did you use to answer the question? State the null hypothesis for your test. Also specify the test statistic that you will use. 3) Results: What evidence did your approach generate? Include in your write-up a histogram of the probability distribution of the test statistic (generated under the assumption that the null hypothesis is true). Also report the the p-value itself. 4) Conclusion: What is your conclusion? 2 Provide a short written interpretation of your p-value (using the definition of a p-value) that clarifies what your results represent. Write a short conclusion about the extent to which you think the null hypothesis looks plausible in light of the observed data. Do you recommend that Sam Ehlinger be considered for the job based on this evidence?
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