Inputs - Total Market Size in Units increases by 25% in the current year. - The trend toward Direct sales reverses and declines to 45% - The Company increased pricing to Retailers to $150 and Retail Market Share declined to 80% - The Price to Direct and Direct Market Share are unchanged - The Unit Cost does not change. - The Direct SG&A Percent declines to 8% because the company has improved its add-spend while Retail SG&A Percent is unchanged. You can see that the formulas other than the yellow boxes in which you enter data in Column I are the same as in Columns D through G, as the same relationships persist. In the two grey boxes below we demonstrate how the hypothesized scenario can be entered into the model. In 157 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Growth Rate'. In 156 the formula '=$656*(1+157)' applies the hypothesized 'Growth Rate' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size in Units' for 2020. In 158 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct'. In 159 the formula '=156*158' applies the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size in Units'. Enter values or formulas in the yellow cells below to develop the forecast. 2017-2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Industry Unit Model Estimated Total Market Size in Units 600 660 726 799 10% 998 Growth Rate 10% 10% 10% 25% Estimated Percent Direct 33% 40% 48% 58% 20% 45% Direct Market Size in Units 200 264 348 460 32% 449 Retail Market Size in Units 400 396 378 339 -5% 549 Company 2018 2019 2017 2020 CAGR 2021E Company Unit Models Estimated Direct Market Share 50% 40% 30% 20% Estimated Retail Market Share 70% 75% 80% 85% 100 106 105 92 -64% Direct Units Sold Retail Units Sold Total Units Sold 280 297 302 288 732% 380 403 407 380 716% Revenues Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Price to Direct 200 200 200 200 0% Price to Retailers 125 125 125 125 0% Direct Revenues 18,400 -3% Retail Revenues 20,000 35,000 55,000 21,120 37,125 58,245 20,909 37,752 58,661 35,977 1% Total Revenues 54,377 0% Gross Profit Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Unit Cost 100 100 100 100 0% Direct Cost of Revenues -3% Retail Cost of Revenues 1% 10,000 28,000 10,000 7,000 Direct Gross Profit 10,560 29,700 10,560 7,425 17,985 10,454 30,202 10,454 7,550 18,005 9,200 28,782 9,200 7,195 16,395 -3% Retail Gross Profit 1% Total Gross Profit 17,000 -1% Operating Profit Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Direct SG&A Percent 10% 10% 10% 10% Retail SG&A Percent 5% 5% 5% 5% Direct SG&A -3% Retail SG&A 1% Direct EBIT 2,000 1,750 8,000 5,250 13,250 2,112 1,856 8,448 5,569 14,017 2,091 1,888 8,364 5,663 14,026 1,840 1,799 7,360 5,397 12,756 -3% Retail EBIT 1% Total EBIT -1% Inputs - Total Market Size in Units increases by 25% in the current year. - The trend toward Direct sales reverses and declines to 45% - The Company increased pricing to Retailers to $150 and Retail Market Share declined to 80% - The Price to Direct and Direct Market Share are unchanged - The Unit Cost does not change. - The Direct SG&A Percent declines to 8% because the company has improved its add-spend while Retail SG&A Percent is unchanged. You can see that the formulas other than the yellow boxes in which you enter data in Column I are the same as in Columns D through G, as the same relationships persist. In the two grey boxes below we demonstrate how the hypothesized scenario can be entered into the model. In 157 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Growth Rate'. In 156 the formula '=$656*(1+157)' applies the hypothesized 'Growth Rate' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size in Units' for 2020. In 158 we have already entered the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct'. In 159 the formula '=156*158' applies the hypothesized 'Estimated Percent Direct' to the 'Estimated Total Market Size in Units'. Enter values or formulas in the yellow cells below to develop the forecast. 2017-2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Industry Unit Model Estimated Total Market Size in Units 600 660 726 799 10% 998 Growth Rate 10% 10% 10% 25% Estimated Percent Direct 33% 40% 48% 58% 20% 45% Direct Market Size in Units 200 264 348 460 32% 449 Retail Market Size in Units 400 396 378 339 -5% 549 Company 2018 2019 2017 2020 CAGR 2021E Company Unit Models Estimated Direct Market Share 50% 40% 30% 20% Estimated Retail Market Share 70% 75% 80% 85% 100 106 105 92 -64% Direct Units Sold Retail Units Sold Total Units Sold 280 297 302 288 732% 380 403 407 380 716% Revenues Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Price to Direct 200 200 200 200 0% Price to Retailers 125 125 125 125 0% Direct Revenues 18,400 -3% Retail Revenues 20,000 35,000 55,000 21,120 37,125 58,245 20,909 37,752 58,661 35,977 1% Total Revenues 54,377 0% Gross Profit Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Unit Cost 100 100 100 100 0% Direct Cost of Revenues -3% Retail Cost of Revenues 1% 10,000 28,000 10,000 7,000 Direct Gross Profit 10,560 29,700 10,560 7,425 17,985 10,454 30,202 10,454 7,550 18,005 9,200 28,782 9,200 7,195 16,395 -3% Retail Gross Profit 1% Total Gross Profit 17,000 -1% Operating Profit Model 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR 2021E Direct SG&A Percent 10% 10% 10% 10% Retail SG&A Percent 5% 5% 5% 5% Direct SG&A -3% Retail SG&A 1% Direct EBIT 2,000 1,750 8,000 5,250 13,250 2,112 1,856 8,448 5,569 14,017 2,091 1,888 8,364 5,663 14,026 1,840 1,799 7,360 5,397 12,756 -3% Retail EBIT 1% Total EBIT -1%