Instructions Submit your answers to all ofthe questions in a 1Lt'l'ord document. Download the data sets and use Excel to solve the problems. Question 1. A national supplier otjet fuel is interested in forecasting its sales. Download the sales data for the periods 2001, 01 to 2916, 04. a. Plot these sales against time. What, if any, seasonal pattem do you see in the plot? Explain. b. Deseasonalize the data by calculating the centered moving average. Plot the deseasonalized data on the graph created in {a}. Calculate the seasonal index for each quarter. Write a short explanation of whyr the results make sense. c. Develop a trend for the data USING deseasonalized SALES [NOT ACTUAL SALES] and plotthat trend line on the graph developed in (a). lCompare the deseasonalized sales data and the trend line. Does there appear to be a cyclical pattern in the data? Explain. d. For the historical period, plot the values estimated by the time series decomposition model with the original data. e. Make a forecast of sales for the four quarters of 201?. Using the actual data for that year given in the table. calculate the RMSE: The quarterly sales of the Jet Fuel for the previous four quarters are presented in the table: JEI' FUEL SALES Quarter Forecast Actual Squared Error 2111 701 55 . 31 201 702 n . 52 2111 703 32 . T6 21] 1 704 T11. 51 Sum of Squared Errors: Mean-squared Errors: Root Mean-Squared Errors=