International Guidance and Controls (IGC) Cost m($) Probability Event Probability Finishing on Time Finishing on time $3.00 Do nothing 80% Delay finishing by 2 months -$4.60 Favorable progress in 5 months 56% 90% Loss-of-reputation (R) $0.00 No news in 5 months 30% 80% Expand hardware immediately -$3.50 Unfavorable progress in 5 months 14% 40% Expand hardware in 5 months -$3.75 Value of R to switch between delaying decision making and expanding the hardware: R= 1.87 m$ Value of R to switch between delaying decision making and doing nothing: R= 0.9 m$Finishing ontime 80.0% #NAME? #NAME? Software Development Only #NAME? Chance 0 #NAME? 20.0% Finishing With Delay #NAME? 4.6 #NAME? Thomas Stearns Decision #NAME? Hardware Expansion #NAME? #NAME? 3.5 #NAME? 90.0% Finish ontime #NAME? -3 #NAME? continue SDO #NAME? Chance #NAME? Finish with Delay 10.0% #NAME? 4.6 #NAME? 56.0% FP Decision #NAME? expand after 5 month #NAME? NAME? .3.75 #NAME? Delaying the Hardware Expansion #NAME? Chance #NAME? Finish ontime 80.0% #NAME? -3 #NAME? continue SDO #NAME? Chance #NAME? 20.0% finish with delay #NAME? 4.6 #NAME? No in 5 30.0% Decision #NAME? #NAME? expand after 5 month #NAME? -3.75 #NAME? 80.0% Finish ontime #NAME? -3 #NAME? #NAME? continue SDO Chance #NAME? 20.0% finish with delay #NAME? -4.6 #NAME? LUFP 14.0% Decision #NAME? #NAME? expand after 5 month #NAME? -3.75 #NAME