Introduction to Bayesian analysis

1 2 " 13. 4 . 1. 5 . 1 . 6 . 17 . 8 . 19 . 1 10 . 1 11 1 . 12 1 . 13 . 1 . 14. 1 . 15 . 1 . 16 . 17 . 1 1 4) Suppose there is a medical screening procedure for a specific cancer that has sensitivity = 90, and specificity = .95. Suppose the underlying rate of the cancer in the population is 001. Let B be the event "the person has that specific cancer," and let A be the event "the screening procedure gives a positive result." (a) What is the probability that a person has the disease given the results of the screening is positive? (b) Does this show that screening is effective in detecting this cancer