Investment Timing Option: Decision-Tree Analysis

The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $16 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $8 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $17 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $8.4 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $4.4 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 12%.

1. If the company chooses to drill today, what is the project's net present value? Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.23 million should be entered as 1.23, not 1,230,000. Round your answer to two decimal places.

   $ million

2. Using decision-tree analysis, does it make sense to wait 2 years before deciding whether to drill?

   -Select-Yes, it makes sense to wait two years to drill.No, it makes sense to drill today.