It had been a quiet Monday morning for Anna Hogue, senior project manager at Flagstone Consulting. Everything seemed to be falling into place for the company's first conference, "Healthcare Management in the New Millenium," scheduled for October 11 and 12 in Boston. Then Ethan Tang, the staff consultant in charge of registration, stuck his head in the door.

"Anna," said Ethan, "I think we may have a problem with the conference. Only 15 people have registered. Our marketing consultants told us to expect at least a 3% registration rate from our direct mail campaign. Based on the 5,000 conference fliers we mailed, do you think another 135 people will register in the next three weeks?" Anna and Ethan had worked together to develop a budget for the conference, as follows. They had budgeted for registration response rates of 2%, 3%, and 4%, but a response rate of 0.3% was far outside

their expectations.