Question
It is foolhardy to assume that such a determinstic solution as provided in Problem 3 could be realistic.In this questions we will build a solution
It is foolhardy to assume that such a determinstic solution as provided in Problem 3 could be realistic.In this questions we will build a solution under uncertainty using monte-carlo simulation.Consdier the following sources of variablity:
1 - The probablity of success of the "in-house" solution is uniformly distributed between 75% and 95%.
2 - The probability that the low budget marketing campaign will produce $2,000,000 in sales in uniformly distributed between 5% and 25%.
3 - The probability that the low budget marketing campaign will produce $4,000,000 in sales in uniformly distributed between 30% and 60%.
4 - The probability that the high budget marketing campaign will produce $4,000,000 in sales in uniformly distributed between 40% and 65%.
5 - The probability that the high budget marketing campaign will produce $5,000,000 in sales in uniformly distributed between 10% and 30%.
A)Provide a 1,000 iteration Monte-Carlo simulation for Problem 3 above.Upload your Excel File.BE SURE AND PROVIDE ALL RELEVANT SCREEN SHOTS IN YOUR ONE Word Document.
B)What is the distribution of each of the 5 scenarios.
C)What is the probability that producing in house is favorable?
D)Comment on this technique.
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