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It is May 31st, 2021 and Claire Dunphy is looking at the platinum market. The live data feed on her screen displays the following information
It is May 31st, 2021 and Claire Dunphy is looking at the platinum market. The live data feed on her screen displays the following information for spot and futures prices: Spot 1015.4 June 2021 1015.3 July 2021 1014.9 Aug 2021 1013.9 Oct 2021 1010.6 Dec 2021 1008.2 Note: all prices are per ounce of platinum Which of the following statements is correct? The quotes present an arbitrage opportunity because if Claire takes a long position today (May 31st 2021) in the October 2021 contracts and closes it out at the end of September 2021, she is guaranteed a +0.465% return. From the information above, Claire cannot determine whether platinum is in normal contango or in normal backwardation. Claire can earn a positive roll return by going long the June 2021 contract and simultaneously short the August 2021 contract. If the curve above stays the same until the end of June 2021, Claire would earn a +0.039% return if she goes short the July 2021 contract today (May 31st 2021) and closes her position after 1 month, As the prices in the table shows a positive basis and downward sloping futures curve, the platinum market is in normal backwardation
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