Question
It is year-end 2012, and Christina Jaco, bank analyst, is looking into Citigroup for possible inclusion into a clients portfolio. Jaco also gathers the following
It is year-end 2012, and Christina Jaco, bank analyst, is looking into Citigroup for possible inclusion into a clients portfolio.
Jaco also gathers the following data and estimates for Citigroup:
Current market price per share | $29.91 |
Current book value per share | $62.61 |
Cost of equity (Fama-French model) | 8% |
Jaco chooses to estimate the intrinsic value of Citigroup using three approaches.
Approach 1: Value shares of Citigroup using a single-stage residual income (RI) model. Under Approach 1, starting in 2013, both ROE, estimated to be 9%, and the long-term growth rate estimated at 4%, are both expected to remain constant into perpetuity.
For Approaches 2 and 3, Jaco forecasts annual earnings per share (EPS) and dividends per share (DPS) for Citigroup over the next three years:
2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
Expected earnings per share (EPS) | $5.50 | $6.00 | $6.60 |
Expected dividends per share (DPS) | $1.25 | $1.50 | $1.80 |
Approach 2: Value shares of Citigroup using a multistage residual income (RI) model and the EPS/DPS data above. Under Approach 2, share price is expected to equal book value per share at the end of 2015.
Approach 3: Value shares of Citigroup using a multistage residual income (RI) model and the EPS/DPS data above. Under Approach 3, expected ROE is expected to be 9% starting in 2016, but it is assumed that ROE will slowly decay towards the cost of equity thereafter. The persistence factor has been estimated to be 0.60.
What is the estimated intrinsic value per share for Citigroup under Approach 1?
What is the estimated intrinsic value per share for Citigroup under Approach 2?
What is the estimated intrinsic value per share for Citigroup under Approach 3?
(Hint on #6: Calculate a RI per share for 2016 using the given info just as calculated for 2013, 2014 and 2015 and then use that 2016 RI per share to arrive at a terminal value).
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