I've just been told by Peter from the Investment Committee that we have been approached to bid on a stake in the Cloudy Bay Vineyards Limited. To start the process we are expected to submit an “Expression of Interest” form, in which we have to indicate the price we would be happy to pay per share. Although this is purely indicative and not a legally binding commitment, it is considered bad form to back out of an expression of interest. The Investment Committee will be meeting tomorrow at 10am to discuss our Cloudy Bay; they will be expecting me to have an opinion about the value of Cloudy Bay. So I need your help: Can you run some numbers and come up with an equity valuation for Cloudy Bay as a whole (and a price per share)?

I'll need a 5-7 page report. I'd like a brief overview of Cloudy Bay, its industry, the overall economy, a description and motivation of your valuation approach, key assumptions and valuation drivers, the actual “base case” valuation (of the equity of the whole firm and price per share) and some scenario analysis showing what the valuation might look like if we change the key valuation drivers. I'll be presenting this to the committee so make sure it looks professional. You should be able to locate financials for Cloudy Bay on the New Zealand Companies Office website under the “Documents” section.

You can use any information that is publicly available. Be sure to send me your calculations just in case I get challenged on any of the numbers. I'll be boarding my plane in 15 mins and should be back in town tomorrow morning by 9:15am. It would be great if you could email me the overview before then so I can have a look at it while taking the taxi to the meeting.

Thanks, Charles'

TASK:

1. Executive Summary

a. Price: Mid-point estimate, Low and High estimates

b. Date of valuation

c. One-line valuation approach summary

d. Most important valuation drivers

e. Key risks (industry, regulatory, market, technology)

2. Purpose

a. Who and what is the report for?

b. Limitations, caveats and disclaimers

3. Context

a. Economic Backdrop

b. Industry Developments

c. The Firm

4. Methodology

a. Summarise alternative methodologies

b. Select a methodology and motivate why you prefer this methodology to the alternatives

c. Set out the chosen methodology in sufficient detail

5. Valuation

a. Valuation output (valuation in $/share)

b. Key inputs and intermediate variables

i. Risk free rate, Market Risk Premium

ii. Equity beta, equity discount rate [, debt discount rate, D/E ratio, WACC]

iii. Growth rate(s), profit margins, terminal value

6. Scenario Analysis

a. Define scenarios for Pessimistic, Base case, Optimistic

b. Report Valuation + 2-4 key variables from each scenario

c. Scenarios could be based on possible economic outcomes or possible industry or technological developments.