Question
JAZZ is a rapidly growing specialty pharmaceutical company. Unlike standard pharmaceutical companies, specialty firms focus on niche diseases and chronic conditions; often, tgey are fewer
JAZZ is a rapidly growing "specialty" pharmaceutical company. Unlike standard pharmaceutical companies, specialty firms focus on niche diseases and chronic conditions; often, tgey are fewer than 200,000 patients suffering from these diseases. The company recorded $923 million in revenue and $423 million in EBITDA in the last twelve months (LTM) as of this case study, and currently trades at LTM revenue and EBITDA multiples of 10x and 22x, respectively. Its stock price has increase dramatically over the past year, rising from $60 per share to over $170 per share before it fell back down to the $130-$140 range recently.
The company's growth has been driven by strong sales of its key product, Xyrem, a patentprotected "orphan drug" for treating cataplexy and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in patients with narcolepsy. As of the end of the company's most recent fiscal year, Xyrem was treating 11,250 patients. The company also sells and develops other drugs, but Xyrem comprises 66% of its sales. The key risk factor is that the company's patents on Xyrem expire in 5-6 years' time and it is unable to make up lost revenue by discovering or acquiring other viable drugs; generics may come to the market even sooner than that due to several pending lawsuits.
The "Bull Case" for JAZZ is that Xyrem continues to grow rapidly in both pricing and volume; once the patents expire, it is able to make up the difference by the shifting into other priducts. The "Bear Case" is that the company is not able to replenish its drug pipeline, or that Xyrem sales fall rapidly due to earlier-than-expected generics. Your job is to decide which of these views, if any, is correct, and to then make an investment recommendation (for the hedge fund/asset management and equity research cases), or a client recommendation on the company's best options going forward.
QUESTION:
What are your recomendation for this case?
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