Jim Inc. is selling plastic Viking helmets with horns. They recently decided to try an Easter version with bunny ears instead of horns. They are using the data from the horns version to forecast the sales for the bunny version. The actual sales data for the last 15 periods are below:

Period	Actual Sales
1	1,870
2	1,875
3	1,893
4	1,899
5	2,010
6	2,028
7	2,001
8	1,956
9	1,935
10	1,899
11	1,889
12	1,891
13	1,902
14	1,904
15	1,910

 

Build a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model starting in the 4th period with ⍺=0.17 and β=0.15. Use 1,879 for the first forecast and an original trend factor of 7.

What is the forecast for period 15 in your model?