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Joe and Donald are running against each other for president. Suppose the race depends only on 2 states: Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe needs to win
Joe and Donald are running against each other for president. Suppose the race depends only on 2 states: Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe needs to win both states to win the election, while Donald just needs one. For shorthand let the event M be the event that "Donald wins Michigan" and W be the event that "Donald wins Wisconsin." Suppose P(M) = 0.55, P(W) =0.55, and P(M|W) = 0.9. Suppose you sleep through election night, and the next morning you wake up hearing a TV commentator saying Joe won Michigan. Given that knowledge, what is the chance that Joe won the election? Hint: you just saw that Mc is true. You need to find the conditional probability P(W MC)
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