John and George have the same income and will experience the same income loss if they fall sick. They also derive the same utility from income at all income levels and have bought health insurance in the past. John estimates his probability of falling sick next year at 0.4. George thinks he is likely to fall sick with probability 0.9. Who is more likely to pay more for health insurance for next year and why? John because he is less likely to fall sick. John because his probability of falling sick is closer to a coin toss. George because he is more likely to fall sick than John. George because he is almost certainly going to fall sick, so he needs insurance