K26 D H M N 8 Use the Historical demand data below to calculate THREE forecasts. 1) 3 Period Simple moving average 2) 3 Period Weighted moving average using weights of 5, 3,.2 and 3) Exponential Smoothing forecast using an Alpha of 3. and a Week 3 forecast of 600 units. For each of the 3 forecasts calculate the Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percent Error. Use the ABS formula for Absolute Value. NOTE: You will fill in the only the cells in grey. Use formulas for each calculation. For the perecentages, please leave your answer in decimal points (e.g. 10.38% = 0.1038) 9 10. 11 12 13 14 Demand 15 430 3 Period 16 490 17 630 18 610 19 550 20 470 21 445 22 520 23 620 (430+490+630)/3 = 516.67 (490+630+610)/3=576.67 (630+610+550)/3 = 596.67 (610+550+470)/3=543.33 (550+470+445)/3=488.33 (470+445+520)/3 = 478.33 24 500 (445+520+620)/3 = 528.33 25 635 26 560 (520+620+500)/3 = 546.67 (620+500+635)/3=585 27 28 29 30 31 32 SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (SMA) Abs (e) l' [Abs(e)/D,x100% 5,3,2 WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE (WMA) Abs (e) EXPONENTIAL SM I' [Abs(e)/0,x100% Alpha-3 Abs 600 ((630*0.5)+(490*0.3)+(430*0.2)] [(610*0.5)+(630*0.3)+(490*0.2)) (550*0.5)+(610*0.3)+(630*0.2) [(470 0.5)+(550*0.3)+(610*0.2)] [(445 0.5)+(470*0.3)+(550*0.2)] [(520*0.5)+(445*0.3)+(470*0.2)] [(620 0.5)+(520*0.3)+(445*0.2)] [(500*0.5)+(620*0.3)+(520*0.2)1 [(635 0.5)+(500*0.3)+(620*0.2) 33 Which of the above 3 methods above (SMA vs. WMA vs. ES) is the most accurate and why? Please write your rational in text box below. 34 36 Insert answer here: 37 38 READ THIS FIRST QUESTIONS