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Korean Ship Building Construction builds ocean-going container ships in Soul, South Korea. Although the firm has been in business for only three years, revenue has
Korean Ship Building Construction builds ocean-going container ships in Soul, South Korea. Although the firm has been in business for only three years, revenue has increased substantially in recent years. The following data show the quarterly sales revenue in thousands of dollars: (Attach excel output/results) Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 20 37 75 2 100 136 155 3 175 245 326 4 13 26 48 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? [1] b. Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. [3] c. Based on the model you developed in part (b), compute estimates (forecast) of quarterly sales for year 4. [3] d. Let Period = 1 refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; Period = 2 refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1; ...; and Period = 12 refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and the variable Period, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. [3] e. Based on the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend estimated in part (d), compute estimates (forecast) of quarterly sales for year 4. [3] f. Is the model you developed in part (b) or the model you developed in part (d) more effective? Justify your answer. [2]
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