Question
Lakeshore Manufacturing must decide whether to set their production capacity next quarter to small, medium or large while hoping that a looming employee strike will
Lakeshore Manufacturing must decide whether to set their production capacity next quarter to small, medium or large while hoping that a looming employee strike will not actually materialize. Their projected annual profits $('000) depend on the event of the strike as follows:
No strike | Strike | |
---|---|---|
Small | 430 | 420 |
Medium | 480 | 350 |
Large | 810 | -250 |
ProbabilityProbability | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Part A 1. What is the best expected payoff and the corresponding decision using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) approach? $('000) Select an answer Small Medium Large 2. What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)? $('000) Part B Lakeshore can hire a labour researcher for a $11,500 to obtain further information on the possibility of a strike. The researcher's report will either be favourable or unfavourable. The probability estimates are: Probability of an unfavorable report = 0.45 Probability of no strike given a favorable report = 0.64 Probability of a strike given an unfavorable report = 0.58 1. If the researcher gives a favourable report, what is the expected value of the optimal decision? $
Hint: Payoffs are in thousand dollars. Answer is required in dollars.
2. If the researcher gives an unfavourable report, what is the expected value of the optimal decision? $ 3. What is the expected value with sample information (EVwSI) provided by the researcher? $ 4. How much should Lakeshore pay the researcher, at most? $ 5. Based on the EVSI, should Lakeshore pay $11,500 for the sample information? Select an answer Yes, they should. No, they should not. 6. What is the efficiency of the sample information? Round % to 1 decimal place.
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