Last night: Chocolate

Tonight's probabilities: Chocolate Chip Cookies = 0.4; brownies = 0.4

Last night: Chocolate Chip Cookies

Tonight's probabilities: Chocolate = 0.3; Brownies = 0.5

Last night: Brownies

Tonight's probabilities: Chocolate = 0.8; Probability of Chocolate Chip Cookies = 0.2

We decide that the desserts are ordered 1) Chocolate, 2) Chocolate Chip Cookies. 3) Brownies.

A. State the transfer matrix for this system. (Order rows / columns 1 - 2 - 3 as identified above.)

B. Draw the flow diagram for this system.