Late last night a car ran into your neighbour and drove away. In your (wealthy) town there are a thousand cars, 5% are Jaguars. The only eyewitness to the hit and run says the car that hit your neighbour was a Jaguar. Tested under similar conditions, the eyewitness mistakenly classifies cars of other makes as Jaguars 10% of the time, and she correctly classifies Jaguars as such 90% of the time. At issue is whether the car that hit your neighbour was a Jaguar.

Using Bayes's Theorem, what is the probability of the hypothesis being true, given a positive test?