LDSP 5130, Leadership Judgment and Decision Making Group Test 1 As with any other activities in this course, feel free if you wish to adapt any ideas you develop here to your group's Heuristics Project. Buying printers for the office (30 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 2 Exercise 2 on pages 29-30. A manager is ordering printers for staff working in the company's main office. Details of the available models are given below. The print quality score has been produced by an independent magazine. The score ranges from 1 = very poor to 5 = excellent. Model Price Mono Printing Print quality score | Noise level (dBA) Speed (ppm) Solar $200 12.0 5 45 Symbol $159 7.8 4 46 Real $169 5.4 3 38 CCC $250 6.0 5 40 Tiger $80 4.1 4 48 Linwood $110 5.6 4 43 GA $185 5.4 4 40 Superb $210 7.2 4 45 Multitask $170 6.1 5 36 AR52 $237 14.0 5 48 Zeta $105 7.0 2 45 Multitask 2 $118 9.1 3 43 Use the above information for the following items: (a) Demonstrate how the manager could apply either a \"lexicographic\" or \"semi-lexicographic\" (your choice) strategy to choose the printer model to buy and discuss advantages/disadvantages of using this strategy. Please note: there is not one correct answer, and you may choose the specifics of how you apply this strategy. (b) Demonstrate how the manager could apply an \"elimination by aspects\" strategy to choose the printer model to buy and discuss advantages/disadvantages of using this strategy. Please note: there is not one correct answer, and you may choose the specifics of how you apply this strategy. (c) Demonstrate how the manager could apply a \"satisficing\" strategy to choose the printer model to buy and discuss advantages/disadvantages of using this strategy. Please note: there is not one correct answer, and you may choose the specifics of how you apply this strategy. Expected selling price of a house (10 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 5 Exercise 12 on page 116. A homeowner is thinking of selling their house and they reckon that there is a 0.1 probability that they can sell the house for $120,000, a 0.5 probability that they can sell the house for $100,000, and a 0.4 probability that they can sell the house for $80,000. What is the expected selling price of the house based on this information? Concert marketing and profitability (20 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 6 Exercise 1 on page 153. An entertainment company is organizing a music concert in Nashville, Tennessee. The company has to decide how much it should spend on publicizing the event and three options have been identified. Option 1: Advertise only in the music press. Option 2: As option 1 but also advertise in the national press. Option 3: As options 1 and 2 but also advertise on social media. For simplicity, the demand for tickets is categorized as low, medium, or high. The payoff table below shows how the profit which the company will earn for each option depends on the level of demand. Profits (5000) Probabilities for Option 1 are estimated as: Low = 0.40 Medium = 0.50 High = 0.10 Probabilities for Option 2 are estimated as: Low =0.10 Medium = 0.30 High = 0.60 Probabilities for Option 3 are estimated as: Low = 0.05 Medium = 0.15 High = 0.80 Two items to answer: (a) Determine the option which will lead to the highest expected profit. Show you method of determining this. (b) Would you have any reservations about recommending this option to the company? Why or why not? Television game show decision (10 points). This item is adapted from Gooedwin and Wright Chapter 6 Exercise 4 on page 154. You are a contestant on a television game show and you have won $5,000 so far. You are now offered a choice: either you can keep the money and leave or you can continue into the next round, where you have a 70% chance of increasing your winnings to $10,000 and a 30% chance of losing the $5,000 and finishing the game with nothing. Answer these two items: (a) What would be the expected monetary value criterion associated with this scenario? (b) How does your choice compare with that which would be prescribed by the expected monetary value criterion? Relating one of the Krogerus and Tschippeler models (20 points). Refer to pages 5-82 of Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschappeler's The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking. For any one of the models found in pages 5-82 (for example \"The Eisenhower Matrix,\" \"The Stop Rule,\" or \"The hard choice model\"), explain how it relates to a concept or idea or illustration found in Paul Goodwin and George Wright's Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. How the Krogerus and Tschdppeler model relates to something in Goodwin and Wright is entirely up to you just explain how you see the relationship. In addition to the points associated with the questions above, 10 points of the test are reserved for following instructions given in the document titled \"Assignment Group Test 1\" posted in the Content area of D2L. In particular, a group should use the proper file name for the RTF file submitted for Group Test 1, submit the file in RTF format, and use the proper heading at the beginning of the test document - including the group name and all group members. The \"Fatal Writing Error Policy\" described in the document titled \"Assignment Group Test 1\" is also in effect for this assignment