LDSP 5130, Leadership Judgment and Decision Making Group Test 2 As with any other activities in this course, feel free if you wish to adapt any ideas you develop here to your group's Heuristics Project. Chemical plant overhaul (20 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 10 Exercise 3 on pages 270-271. Please refer to that problem as well as what is written here. A chemical plant is due for a major overhaul and the manager has to make an assessment of a number of uncertainties associated with the project. These include the time the overhaul will take to complete (after 35 days the losses of production caused by the overhaul could have serious consequences for the company) and the risks that there will be leakage of dangerous chemicals into local watercourses during the cleaning process. The following extracts have been taken from the manager's draft report which details plans for the overhaul. (i) \"] assessed the most likely duration of the overhaul to be 30 days. |then tried to take an optimistic view and assumed that, if all goes well, we could finish the work 5 days earlier than this (i.e., in 25 days). |then took a pessimistic perspective and estimated that the longest the project will take is 34 days. | am therefore certain that we should complete the overhaul within 35 days.\" (i) \"Essentially the overhaul will be split into eight independent phases. | think the chances of us completing each phase without a pollution problem are high, say 90%. Overall, | therefore estimate that we have almost a 90% chance of avoiding a pollution problem during the project.\" (iii) \"There must be a high chance that there will be no serious corrosion in the main pump. The last five pumps we've inspected at other plants were all corroded and the chances of getting six corroded pumps in a row must be low indeed.\" (iv) \"I'm mindful of the theft of equipment we had last week at our Briston plant. If we don't take appropriate security precautions | am virtually certain that we will lose important equipment in this way during the overhaul, with possible disastrous effects on our ability to complete the project within 35 days.\" V) \"I've estimated the probability of the West boiler requiring repair to be about 10%.\" (On a later page:) \"Given the likelihood of seepage into the pipe feeding the West boiler, there must be a high chance of this boiler being corroded. | therefore reckon that there is a 50:50 chance that we will have to repair this boiler as a result of the seepage and corrosion.\" Comment on these extracts from the report in the light of Tversky and Kahneman's work on heuristics and biases. Decision analysis in negotiation problems (10 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 14 Exercise 6 and Exercise 7 on page 356. Please refer to those problems as well as what is written here. (a) What are the potential benefits of using decision analysis in negotiation problems? (b) What is meant by an efficient deal in the context of negotiation problems? 4 ways of dealing with uncertainty (20 points). This item is adapted from Goodwin and Wright Chapter 16 Exercise 4 on pags 420. Please refer to that problem as well as what is written here. Decision trees, scenario planning, keeping one's options open, and seeking \"antifragile\" positions are four ways of dealing with uncertainty in the organizational environment. What are advantages and disadvantages of each approach? Relating one of the Krogerus and Tschappeler models [latter portion of the text] (20 points). Refer to pages 83-149 of Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschappeler's The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking. For any one of the models found in pages 83-149 (for example \"The conflict resolution model\" or "The project management triangle\"), explain how it relates to a concept or idea or illustration found in Paul Goodwin and George Wright's Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. How the Krogerus and Tschappeler model relates to something in Goodwin and Wright is entirely up to you just explain how you see the relationship. Now it's your turn (20 points). At the end of the Krogerus and Tschappeler text is the section, \"Now it's your turn\" (pages 151-157). What is your decision making model {or a particular decision making model of yours for particular situation(s))? You may describe it in the manner of your choosing. If you want to do so in narrative (text) form, that is fine. If you want to do it in visual form, that is fine as well. Explain the components of your decision making model. Please note: If you want to submit a visual image, you may want to do so in a separate file such as a PDF; however, you can also include it in the word processor document with the rest of the test. If you do use a separate file, reference what that file is. In addition to the points associated with the questions above, 10 points of the test are reserved for following instructions given in the document titled \"Assignment Group Test 2\" posted in the Content area of D2L. In particular, a group should use the proper file name for the RTF file submitted for Group Test 2, submit the file in RTF format, and use the proper heading at the beginning of the test document including the group name and all group members. The \"Fatal Writing Error Policy\" described in the document titled \"Assignment Group Test 2\" is also in effect for this assignment