Link to case study: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf

UNCTAD has prepared an initial assessment of the impact of war in Ukraine on trade and development and interrelated issues in finance, technology, investment and sustainable development. The results confirm a rapidly worsening outlook for the world economy, underpinned by rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices, heightened financial volatility, sustainable development divestment, complex global supply chain reconfigurations and mounting trade costs.

This rapidly evolving situation is alarming for developing countries, especially for African and least developed countries, some of which are particularly exposed to the war in Ukraine and its effect on trade costs, commodity prices and financial markets. Moreover, the risk of civil unrest, food shortages and inflation-induced recessions cannot be discounted, particularly given the fragile state of the global economy and the developing world due to the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic.

Based on the statistics provided in the reports and the briefing mentioned above of situations, give your opinion about the following questions. Please feel free to do further research to enhance your arguments.

1. Why did some densely populated, important middle eastern and African countries heavily depend on Ukraine and Russia for food supply, specifically corns, wheat, and edible oils? What will be the long-term implications if Russian aggression on Ukraine stays longer?
2. Most Western and eastern European countries heavily depend on Russian natural gas and oils imports. It will take a long time for them to substitute energy imports from Russia at a higher cost. How will this issue affect European countries in general and the EU in specific in the long term?
3. In your opinion, what will be the extended effect of Russia's aggression on Ukraine on global trade and international relationships?
4. Please look into the attached statistics provided by UNCTAD and articulate what takes your attention the most?