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Logan is a new hire as a transportation analyst. One of his carriers that provides service for the shipping lane from Philadelphia to Indianapolis

Logan is a new hire as a transportation analyst. One of his carriers that provides service for the shipping

Logan is a new hire as a transportation analyst. One of his carriers that provides service for the shipping lane from Philadelphia to Indianapolis asks Logan would it be possible to receive a forecast for the number of trucks shipping in that lane at the beginning of each month (must be in "whole trucks"). Logan is considering the two forecasting methods: Three period WMA and Exponential Smoothing. Given the data and weighting below forecast April through July for each method. Which forecast provides the better result based on Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) and what is the differential for the July Forecast between the two models? Month Demand Jan 190 Feb 195 Mar 214 April 205 May 222 June 230 July 235 WMA t-1 t-2 t-3 0.6 0.2 0.2 Exponential Smoothing: Alpha = .8, March Forecast = 200 WMA; Differential = 3 WMA; Differential = 5 Exponential; Differential = 5 Exponential; Differential = 3

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