M Inbox (300) - sheldonlewis 1999@ x DO IDEAS y! coursehero - Yahoo Search Result X *Homework Help - Q&A from Onl X + X C ideas.humber.ca/assess2/?cid=4098laid=11566#/skip/3 i Apps Student Profile @ Advisor Login & Inv. s The Mini Majority ~. Onlinemessage.. Pearson Sign In Cengage Learning Other bookmarks Reading list Part C The questions in this section are independent of Part A and Part B. The scenario is the same but the values are different. Senior management at Humber bakery requested a new analysis based on adjusting the selling price and the number of units produced under each production plan. Initial probability estimates are also updated. Resulting gross profits ($) and state of nature probabilities are given in the following payoff table. Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Light 12,540 36,000 36,000 Production Moderate -1,920 45,000 45,000 Production Heavy -47,710 7,030 65,680 Production Probability 0.5 0.1 0.4 The new analysis also necessitated updating the offer made to Bramptinos under the heavy production plan. If Humber chooses the heavy production plan, the probability that Bramptinos will accept the new offer is 27% and the associated gross profit is aha $68 600 Amai if Bra fillIdeashumber ra I1} Student F'rafile Ad (La-gin 5 Thel'ini May, e I Clnlinen determined to be $68,600. Again here. if Bramptinos declines the offer, the loaves will still sell based on current demand conditions (low. medium, or high). Use the decision tree you selected from Part A, along with the payoffs and probabilities provided on this page. to construct a decision tree for the problem. I. No Sample Information What is the expected monetary value and associated decision for the optimal alternative? The optimal decision is production. II. Sample Information As noted earlier, Humber is considering hiring Professor Leung to conduct a market research survey. It is now determined that the results of the survey will indicate a favourable market condition with 52% chance. Otherwise, it will indicate an unfavourable market condition. If the survey provides a favourable outlook. the revised probabilities of medium and low demand are 0.32 and 0.27 respectively. If unfavourable, the probabilities calculated for low and medium demand are 0.46 and 0.34 respectively. ' [Engage Learning I Dthert :ola- a rl-rs FIE-aiding list M Inbox (300) - sheldonlewis 1999@ x DO IDEAS y! coursehero - Yahoo Search Result X *Homework Help - Q&LA from Onl X + X C ideas.humber.ca/assess2/?cid=4098laid =11566#/skip/3 ii Apps Student Profile @ Advisor Login & Inv... s The Mini Majority ~... Onlinemessage. Pearson Sign In Cengage Learning Other bookmarks Reading list a. What is the best expected monetary value and associated decision under a favourable survey outcome? Max EMV = $ The optimal decision is |Select an answer v| production. b. What is the best expected monetary value and associated decision under an ufavourable survey outcome? Max EMV = $ The optimal decision is Select an answer v| production. c. What is the value with the sample information? EV with SI = $ d. What is the value of the sample information (EVSI)? EVSI = $ e. What is the optimal decision strategy if Professor Leung's consulting fees were $6,499. Select an
