Make a forecast of something you're interested in. It could be the economy, fashion, sports, or entertainment. Set out what you have to believe for the forecast to be true. Then ask whether it's likely to happen. Check out fivethirtyeight.com, where they do this for a living.

• Provide your own thoughts and analysis, including examples from your personal or professional life when applicable.

This post allows you to use heuristics to test your forecast. Select a topic that interests you and then answer the following from the text Conn, C. and McLean, R. (2018). Bulletproof Problem Solving, the one skill that changes everything. Wiley:

• Response to Problem should be complete and succinct. The reader should be able to clear identify your forecast, what you have to believe for the forecast to be true and if you think the forecast will happen. Excellent posts will utilize analysis techniques outlined in the Chapter to help support the forecast.