make a literature review, synthesis and list of references (5000 words excluding list of references) and a conclusion (350 words) and an abstract (not more than 200 words).for the following topic:

"Imagine that a major geopolitical conflict breaks out in the not too distance future with the result that global trade falls by 15%. 1. Develop an informed opinion about the likely consequences of a 15% fall in global trade for the South African balance of payments (separately the current and capital account) with the likely knock-on effect on GDP, the exchange rate and inflation. 2. In relation to the likely knock-on effect on local GDP, develop an informed opinion about the likely consequences for domestic bank balance sheets, particularly as a result of a possible rise in loan defaults and a possible fall in asset prices (houses and stocks). Ascertain by how much the banking sector's assets can shrink in value before bank insolvency becomes a major concern.

3. Consider steps the South African Reserve Bank can take to contain the fallout, specifically with reference to an expected exchange rate depreciation and the passthrough to domestic inflation resulting from the slowdown in global trade. "