Mandy, the mayor of Bogart and a strong advocate of a clean downtown, is proposing an increase in the city sales tax from 7 percent to 50 percent on all packs of chewing gum purchased in Bogart. Based on the current gum sales, Mandy estimates that this tax will actually reduce the tax revenue on gum sales. What type of forecasting is Mandy using to derive her tax revenue estimates? What "effect" is her estimate based on? Does this necessarily imply that Mandy will be happy given her desire to have a clean downtown?