Question
Marichal Motors is considering an investment in a proposed project. Rather than making the investment today, the company wants to wait a year to collect
Marichal Motors is considering an investment in a proposed project. Rather than making the investment today, the company wants to wait a year to collect additional information about the project. If Marichal waits a year, it will not have to invest any cash flows unless it decides to make the investment. If it waits, there is a 25% chance the project's expected NPV one year from today will be $10 million, a 50% chance that the project's expected NPV one year from now will be $4 million, and a 25% chance that the project's expected NPV one year from now will be -$10 million. All expected cash flows are discounted at 10%. What is the expected NPV (in today's dollars) if the company chooses to wait a year before deciding whether to make the investment?
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