Markov Analysis Example This first chart is a transition probability matrix: Transition Probablity Positions 0 03 0.00 046 0.08 0.000.00 063 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 Tellers 0.56 0.11 0.05 0.12 2 Customer Service Representatives 0.25 3 Teller Supervisor a00-000 0.00- 0.52-008 a40 052 a00 041 4 Assistant Branch Manager 0.00 0.00 0.70 5 Branch Manager This chart shows that 30% of tellers exited the company (41% of CSR's, 25% of Teller Supervisors, etc.) This also represents percentages of employees moving to other positions. For example: 46% of CSRs stayed in their current position, while 8% were promoted to Teller Supervisors and 5% were promoted to Assistant Branch Managers. Based on the probabilities above you should be able to forecast the number of employees moving into other positions. For example: 336 tellers remained in their current position, 64 moved to CSR, 20 moved to Teller Supervisor and 180 left the company. The left column of the chart represents the positions available in the company. (1) Teller (2) Customer Service Representative (3) Assistant Branch Manager (4) Loan Officer (5) Branch Manager. The Next year projected is the number of employees that will be in each position and how many will leave (1-5 represents the positions in column 2.) Forecast Positions Current Workforce 1 Exit 18 180 Tellers Customer Service Representatives Teller Supervisor Assistant Branch Manager Branch Manager 300 75 100 From the information provided, complete the Forecast for the next year. The tellers have been completed for you as an example. Next you can sum the columns above to determine the gaps for the coming year. For example, at year end you have 336 Tellers and will need to hire 264 externally. Complete the remainder of the gap analysis to determine how many projected hires will be needed in the coming year. Gap Analysis Year End Total column sum) External Hires Needed current workforce-total) 336 264