Question
Matt Saracen is considering a sophisticated investment strategy based on past data. Each month, he creates 10 portfolios based on short-term past returns. The return
Matt Saracen is considering a sophisticated investment strategy based on past data. Each month, he creates 10 portfolios based on short-term past returns. The return ranking period is [t-2, t-12], where t is the current month. Then, he calculates each portfolio return during the current month. The winner portfolio contains the stocks with the highest past short-term returns; the loser portfolio contains the stocks with the lowest past short-term returns. The following table shows summary statistics for the portfolios, including a portfolio that is long Portfolio 10 and short portfolio 1 (ie, 10 minus 1).
Portfolio | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 minus 1 |
Mean Return (%) | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.61 | 1.79 | 1.94 | 2.29 | 0.98 |
St. Dev. Return (%) | 9.94 | 7.21 | 6.14 | 5.51 | 5.18 | 5.02 | 5.17 | 5.34 | 5.99 | 7.54 | 7.78 |
To test his ability to profit on this strategy, Matt runs CAPM regressions on the portfolio returns. Below is output from the regression of a portfolio that is long Portfolio 10 and short portfolio 1 (ie, 10 minus 1).
SUMMARY OUTPUT | ||||||||||
Regression Statistics | ||||||||||
Multiple R | 0.0391 | |||||||||
R Square | 0.0015 | |||||||||
Adjusted R Square | -0.0012 | |||||||||
Standard Error | 0.0779 | |||||||||
Observations | 362 | |||||||||
ANOVA | ||||||||||
| df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | |||||
Regression | 1 | 0.0033 | 0.0033 | 0.5510 | 0.4584 | |||||
Residual | 360 | 2.1825 | 0.0061 | |||||||
Total | 361 | 2.1858 |
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| Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | Upper 95% | ||||
Intercept | 0.0102 | 0.0041 | 2.4708 | 0.0139 | 0.0021 | 0.0183 | ||||
X Variable 1 | -0.0642 | 0.0864 | -0.7423 | 0.4584 | -0.2341 | 0.1058 | ||||
1. What kind of strategy is Matt testing?
2. Which form or forms of the efficient markets hypothesis does this test?
3. By referring specifically to data in the regression output, indicate whether or not the results are consistent with the version of the efficient markets hypothesis being tested.
Group of answer choices
a. inconsistent; positive and statistically significant intercept suggesting there exist abnormal returns
b. inconsistent; slope variable is negative suggesting arbitrage opportunity
c. consistent; slope variable is statistically insignificant suggesting no risk
consistent; intercept is close to zero suggesting no abnormal returns
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