Question
Mbili Gold Investment Cc is an oil exploration and extraction company operating in Erongo region. Mbili Gold Investment Cc is contemplating a drilling project to
Mbili Gold Investment Cc is an oil exploration and extraction company operating in Erongo region. Mbili Gold Investment Cc is contemplating a drilling project to drill 1000 metres deep to explore if the oil exists at the site. The estimated cost of exploration drill is N$ 25 000. Expert opinion suggests that the chance of finding oil at the selected site is 60%. If oil is found due to uncertain demand and costs involved, the following probability distribution is estimated to apply, Scenario Probability Net revenue( Exclude exploration and drill cost) Optimistic 0.25 N$ 3 000 000 Most Likely 0.35 N$ 1 500 000 Pessimistic 0.40 (N$ 150 000) QUESTION 36 Recently you were watching news on TV and they reported that the winter season will be extremely cold. After watching you decided to buy yourself a heater and must decide whether to buy a cheap heater for $1200 or a well-known make for $1900. There is no guarantee with the cheap model, so if it breaks down during the first one year you will simply have to buy another at the same price. Your friend Tuhafeni a Unam graduate who did management accounting has used these heaters for many years and thinks that about one in five of them break down during the first year. The more expensive heater is, however, guaranteed so that if it breaks during the first year, the manufacturer will replace it free of charge. The manufacturer claims that this is only likely to happen in about one in every 50 cases. REQUIRED Marks 35.1. Advice whether the exploration project should be undertaken (Using a decision tree). Show only the outcomes with probabilities on the decision
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