Megan works at Harley Davidson in Edmonton, AB, as a door greeter/customer service. Of the last 50 customer inquiries, 10 of them have actually just been to ask directions to the nearest Tim Horton's!

Megan, a dedicated statistics student, sarcastically says to her co-worker that she bets the next customer will ask for directions, with a 20% probability, instead of actually wanting to buy anything in the store. This is an example of: