Melissa is planning a large outdoor concert in El Paso, where it rains 40 days per year. Unfortunately, the meteorologist has predicted that it will rain on the day of the concert. Over the last year of makingpredictions when it actually rains, the meteorologist correctly forecasted rain 90% of the time. When it didn't rain, she correctly forecasted that it would stay dry 90% of the time.

Follow the sequence of calculations below and select the correct answer from the options below.

• Out of 365 days a year, note how many days it rains, and how many days it does not rain.
• Out of the days it rains, calculate how many days the meteorologist correctly predicted rain. These are the true positives.
• Out of the days it does not rain, calculate how many days the meteorologist incorrectly predicted rain (round up to the nearest day). These are the false positives.
• Add these two numbers together to get the total number of days the meteorologist predicted rain.
• Now work out the percentage of predicted rainy days that it actually rained. (In other words, calculate the percentage of the time that the meteorologist was right when she predicted rain.)

Group of answer choices

-If the meteorologist predicted rain, then there is about a 90% chance that it will rain.

-If the meteorologist predicted rain, then there is about a 27% chance that it will rain.

-If the meteorologist predicted rain, then there is about a 52% chance that it will rain.

-If the meteorologist predicted rain, then there is about a 74% chance that it will rain.