Men and women are observed to react differently to a given set of circumstances. It has been observed that 70% of the women react positively to these circumstances, whereas only 40% of men react positively. A group of 20 people, 15 women and 5 men, were subjected to these circumstances, and the subjects were asked to describe their reactions on a written questionnaire. A response picked at random from the 20. What is the probability that it was a positive response?