Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs, N, as:

N=460+5X

where X = time period (months); (January 2002 = 0)

Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years:

Forecast Metropolitan's bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007.

Month Adjustment Factor (%) Forecast

January +5 ______

April -15 ______

July +4 ______

November -5 _______

December -25 ______

Suppose the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded.

Year Forecast Actual

2007 785 848

2006 725 776

2005 665 705

2004 605 635

2003 545 567

2002 485 500

What seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?