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Model the cash flows of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (inflows, outflows, investment and annual fund balances) in years 2002-2016, under the

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Model the cash flows of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (inflows, outflows, investment and annual fund balances) in years 2002-2016, under the following assumptions: The Fund was set up in 2002 with $10 billion initial deposit The annual deposits and withdrawals to/from the fund are in Table A. (the 2002 deposit is the initial dep deposits are financed by oil royalties and export taxes; the withdrawals are used to finance the national deficit and infrastructure projects The Fund is invested into: (model each scenario a., b., and c. separately) a. 100% one-year US government treasury bills (very safe, conservative) b. 20% in one-year US government treasury bills, 50% in investment-grade corporate bonds, and 30% in (70% bonds, 30% equity: moderately aggressive, less safe) c. 100% in S&P500 (100% equity: aggressive, risky) Assume the annual yield on treasury bills and a portfolio of corporate bonds was as reported in Table A. Obtain S&P500 index value from Bloomberg or internet. The Fund as a sovereign entity does not pay any taxes (neither in US, nor in Kazakhstan). Table A. (The numbers are only illustrative.) deposits annual S&P500 to the withdrawa return on index with Fund year Is from one-year year the Fund J.S. t-bill A rated re- US nvested beginning (year end) rate corporate dividends debt obtain!) 2002 10 2.00% 4.00% 2003 12 2.00% 4.00% 2004 12 2.00% 4.00% 2005 15 2.00% 4.00% 2006 20 2.00% 4.00 2007 15 2.00% 4.00% 2008 15 0.75% 2.75% 2009 20 0.50% 2.50% 2010 21 11 0.50% 2.50% 2011 22 11 0.50% 2.50% 2012 23 0.50% 2.50% 2013 24 0.50% 2.50% 2014 17 0.50% 2.50% 2015 10 1.00% 3.00% 2016 11 30 1.50% 3.50%

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