Month	Fortified	Red	Rose	sparkling	Sweet white	Dry white		Source: Website
Jan-80	2585	464	112	1686	85	1954		Monthly Australian sales of wine Jan 1980 - Jul 1995
Feb-80	3368	675	118	1591	89	2302
Mar-80	3210	703	129	2304	109	3054
Apr-80	3111	887	99	1712	95	2414
May-80	3756	1139	116	1471	91	2226
Jun-80	4216	1077	168	1377	95	2725
Jul-80	5225	1318	118	1966	96	2589
Aug-80	4426	1260	129	2453	128	3470
Sep-80	3932	1120	205	1984	124	2400
Oct-80	3816	963	147	2596	111	3180
Nov-80	3661	996	150	4087	178	4009
Dec-80	3795	960	267	5179	140	3924
Jan-81	2285	530	126	1530	150	2072
Feb-81	2934	883	129	1523	132	2434
Mar-81	2985	894	124	1633	155	2956
Apr-81	3646	1045	97	1976	132	2828
May-81	4198	1199	102	1170	91	2687
Jun-81	4935	1287	127	1480	94	2629
Jul-81	5618	1565	222	1781	109	3150
Aug-81	5454	1577	214	2472	155	4119
Sep-81	3624	1076	118	1981	123	3030
Oct-81	2898	918	141	2273	130	3055
Nov-81	3802	1008	154	3857	150	3821
Dec-81	3629	1063	226	4551	163	4001
Jan-82	2369	544	89	1510	101	2529
Feb-82	2511	635	77	1329	123	2472
Mar-82	3079	804	82	1518	127	3134
Apr-82	3728	980	97	1790	112	2789
May-82	4151	1018	127	1537	108	2758
Jun-82	4326	1064	121	1449	116	2993
Jul-82	5054	1404	117	1954	153	3282
Aug-82	5138	1286	117	1897	163	3437
Sep-82	3310	1104	106	1706	128	2804
Oct-82	3508	999	112	2514	142	3076
Nov-82	3790	996	134	3593	170	3782
Dec-82	3446	1015	169	4524	214	3889
Jan-83	2127	615	75	1609	134	2271
Feb-83	2523	722	108	1638	122	2452
Mar-83	3017	832	115	2030	142	3084
Apr-83	3265	977	85	1375	156	2522
May-83	3822	1270	101	1320	145	2769
Jun-83	4027	1437	108	1245	169	3438
Jul-83	4420	1520	109	1600	134	2839
Aug-83	5255	1708	124	2298	165	3746
Sep-83	4009	1151	105	2191	156	2632
Oct-83	3074	934	95	2511	111	2851
Nov-83	3465	1159	135	3440	165	3871
Dec-83	3718	1209	164	4923	197	3618
Jan-84	1954	699	88	1609	124	2389
Feb-84	2604	830	85	1435	124	2344
Mar-84	3626	996	112	2061	139	2678
Apr-84	2836	1124	87	1789	137	2492
May-84	4042	1458	91	1567	127	2858
Jun-84	3584	1270	87	1404	134	2246
Jul-84	4225	1753	87	1597	136	2800
Aug-84	4523	2258	142	3159	171	3869
Sep-84	2892	1208	95	1759	112	3007
Oct-84	2876	1241	108	2504	110	3023
Nov-84	3420	1265	139	4273	147	3907
Dec-84	3159	1828	159	5274	196	4209
Jan-85	2101	809	61	1771	112	2353
Feb-85	2181	997	82	1682	118	2570
Mar-85	2724	1164	124	1846	125	2903
Apr-85	2954	1205	93	1589	122	2910
May-85	4092	1538	108	1896	120	3782
Jun-85	3470	1513	75	1379	118	2759
Jul-85	3990	1378	87	1645	281	2931
Aug-85	4239	2083	103	2512	344	3641
Sep-85	2855	1357	90	1771	366	2794
Oct-85	2897	1536	108	3727	362	3070
Nov-85	3433	1526	123	4388	580	3576
Dec-85	3307	1376	129	5434	523	4106
Jan-86	1914	779	57	1606	348	2452
Feb-86	2214	1005	65	1523	246	2206
Mar-86	2320	1193	67	1577	197	2488
Apr-86	2714	1522	71	1605	306	2416
May-86	3633	1539	76	1765	279	2534
Jun-86	3295	1546	67	1403	280	2521
Jul-86	4377	2116	110	2584	358	3093
Aug-86	4442	2326	118	3318	431	3903
Sep-86	2774	1596	99	1562	448	2907
Oct-86	2840	1356	85	2349	433	3025
Nov-86	2828	1553	107	3987	504	3812
Dec-86	3758	1613	141	5891	579	4209
Jan-87	1610	814	58	1389	384	2138
Feb-87	1968	1150	65	1442	335	2419
Mar-87	2248	1225	70	1548	320	2622
Apr-87	3262	1691	86	1935	496	2912
May-87	3164	1759	93	1518	448	2708
Jun-87	2972	1754	74	1250	377	2798
Jul-87	4041	2100	87	1847	523	3254
Aug-87	3402	2062	73	1930	468	2895
Sep-87	2898	2012	101	2638	428	3263
Oct-87	2555	1897	100	3114	520	3736
Nov-87	3056	1964	96	4405	493	4077
Dec-87	3717	2186	157	7242	662	4097
Jan-88	1755	966	63	1853	304	2175
Feb-88	2193	1549	115	1779	308	3138
Mar-88	2198	1538	70	2108	313	2823
Apr-88	2777	1612	66	2336	328	2498
May-88	3076	2078	67	1728	354	2822
Jun-88	3389	2137	83	1661	338	2738
Jul-88	4231	2907	79	2230	483	4137
Aug-88	3118	2249	77	1645	355	3515
Sep-88	2524	1883	102	2421	439	3785
Oct-88	2280	1739	116	3740	290	3632
Nov-88	2862	1828	100	4988	352	4504
Dec-88	3502	1868	135	6757	454	4451
Jan-89	1558	1138	71	1757	306	2550
Feb-89	1940	1430	60	1394	303	2867
Mar-89	2226	1809	89	1982	344	3458
Apr-89	2676	1763	74	1650	254	2961
May-89	3145	2200	73	1654	309	3163
Jun-89	3224	2067	91	1406	310	2880
Jul-89	4117	2503	86	1971	379	3331
Aug-89	3446	2141	74	1968	294	3062
Sep-89	2482	2103	87	2608	356	3534
Oct-89	2349	1972	87	3845	318	3622
Nov-89	2986	2181	109	4514	405	4464
Dec-89	3163	2344	137	6694	545	5411
Jan-90	1651	970	43	1720	268	2564
Feb-90	1725	1199	69	1321	243	2820
Mar-90	2622	1718	73	1859	273	3508
Apr-90	2316	1683	77	1628	273	3088
May-90	2976	2025	69	1615	236	3299
Jun-90	3263	2051	76	1457	222	2939
Jul-90	3951	2439	78	1899	302	3320
Aug-90	2917	2353	70	1605	285	3418
Sep-90	2380	2230	83	2424	309	3604
Oct-90	2458	1852	65	3116	322	3495
Nov-90	2883	2147	110	4286	362	4163
Dec-90	2579	2286	132	6047	471	4882
Jan-91	1330	1007	54	1902	198	2211
Feb-91	1686	1665	55	2049	253	3260
Mar-91	2457	1642	66	1874	173	2992
Apr-91	2514	1518	65	1279	186	2425
May-91	2834	1831	60	1432	185	2707
Jun-91	2757	2207	65	1540	105	3244
Jul-91	3425	2822	96	2214	228	3965
Aug-91	3006	2393	55	1857	214	3315
Sep-91	2369	2306	71	2408	189	3333
Oct-91	2017	1785	63	3252	270	3583
Nov-91	2507	2047	74	3627	277	4021
Dec-91	3168	2171	106	6153	378	4904
Jan-92	1545	1212	34	1577	185	2252
Feb-92	1643	1335	47	1667	182	2952
Mar-92	2112	2011	56	1993	258	3573
Apr-92	2415	1860	53	1997	179	3048
May-92	2862	1954	53	1783	197	3059
Jun-92	2822	2152	55	1625	168	2731
Jul-92	3260	2835	67	2076	250	3563
Aug-92	2606	2224	52	1773	211	3092
Sep-92	2264	2182	46	2377	260	3478
Oct-92	2250	1992	51	3088	234	3478
Nov-92	2545	2389	58	4096	305	4308
Dec-92	2856	2724	91	6119	347	5029
Jan-93	1208	891	33	1494	203	2075
Feb-93	1412	1247	40	1564	217	3264
Mar-93	1964	2017	46	1898	227	3308
Apr-93	2018	2257	45	2121	242	3688
May-93	2329	2255	41	1831	185	3136
Jun-93	2660	2255	55	1515	175	2824
Jul-93	2923	3057	57	2048	252	3644
Aug-93	2626	3330	54	2795	319	4694
Sep-93	2132	1896	46	1749	202	2914
Oct-93	1772	2096	52	3339	254	3686
Nov-93	2526	2374	48	4227	336	4358
Dec-93	2755	2535	77	6410	431	5587
Jan-94	1154	1041	30	1197	150	2265
Feb-94	1568	1728	35	1968	280	3685
Mar-94	1965	2201	42	1720	187	3754
Apr-94	2659	2455	48	1725	279	3708
May-94	2354	2204	44	1674	193	3210
Jun-94	2592	2660	45	1693	227	3517
Jul-94	2714	3670	*	2031	225	3905
Aug-94	2294	2665	*	1495	205	3670
Sep-94	2416	2639	46	2968	259	4221
Oct-94	2016	2226	51	3385	254	4404
Nov-94	2799	2586	63	3729	275	5086
Dec-94	2467	2684	84	5999	394	5725

(b) Fortified wine has the largest market share of the six types of wine considered. You are asked to focus on fortified win sales alone and produce as accurate as possible forecasts for the next 2 months.

- start by partitioning the data using the period until december 1993 as the training period.

- Fit a regression model to sales with a linear trend and sesonality

i. Create the "actual vs. forecast" plot. What can you say about model fit?

ii. Use the regression model to forecast sales in January and February 1994.