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Month New constructions (thousands) Jan-2015 29 Feb-2015 32 Mar-2015 41 Apr-2015 44 May-2015 49 Jun-2015 47 Jul-2015 46 Aug-2015 47 Sep-2015 43 Oct-2015 45 Nov-2015

Month New constructions (thousands)
Jan-2015 29
Feb-2015 32
Mar-2015 41
Apr-2015 44
May-2015 49
Jun-2015 47
Jul-2015 46
Aug-2015 47
Sep-2015 43
Oct-2015 45
Nov-2015 34
Dec-2015 31
Jan-2016 35
Feb-2016 43
Mar-2016 46
Apr-2016 46
May-2016 43
Jun-2016 41
Jul-2016 44
Aug-2016 47
Sep-2016 41
Oct-2016 40
Nov-2016 32
Dec-2016 32
Jan-2017 34
Feb-2017 40
Mar-2017 43
Apr-2017 42
May-2017 43
Jun-2017 44
Jul-2017 39
Aug-2017 40
Sep-2017 33
Oct-2017 32
Nov-2017 31
Dec-2017 28
Jan-2018 34
Feb-2018 29
Mar-2018 36
Apr-2018 42
May-2018 43
Jun-2018 44
Jul-2018 44
Aug-2018 48
Sep-2018 45
Oct-2018 44
Nov-2018 40
Dec-2018 37
Jan-2019 45
Feb-2019 49
Mar-2019 62
Apr-2019 62
May-2019 58
Jun-2019 59
Jul-2019 64
Aug-2019 62
Sep-2019 50
Oct-2019 52
Nov-2019 50
Dec-2019 44
Jan-2020 51
Feb-2020 56
Mar-2020 60
Apr-2020 65
May-2020 64
Jun-2020 63
Jul-2020 63
Aug-2020 72
Sep-2020 61
Oct-2020 65
Nov-2020 51
Dec-2020 47

e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart.

f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw?

g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part.

Note: The forecasting method is "Tahoe Salt" with linear trend

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