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Month New constructions (thousands) Jan-2015 29 Feb-2015 32 Mar-2015 41 Apr-2015 44 May-2015 49 Jun-2015 47 Jul-2015 46 Aug-2015 47 Sep-2015 43 Oct-2015 45 Nov-2015
Month | New constructions (thousands) |
Jan-2015 | 29 |
Feb-2015 | 32 |
Mar-2015 | 41 |
Apr-2015 | 44 |
May-2015 | 49 |
Jun-2015 | 47 |
Jul-2015 | 46 |
Aug-2015 | 47 |
Sep-2015 | 43 |
Oct-2015 | 45 |
Nov-2015 | 34 |
Dec-2015 | 31 |
Jan-2016 | 35 |
Feb-2016 | 43 |
Mar-2016 | 46 |
Apr-2016 | 46 |
May-2016 | 43 |
Jun-2016 | 41 |
Jul-2016 | 44 |
Aug-2016 | 47 |
Sep-2016 | 41 |
Oct-2016 | 40 |
Nov-2016 | 32 |
Dec-2016 | 32 |
Jan-2017 | 34 |
Feb-2017 | 40 |
Mar-2017 | 43 |
Apr-2017 | 42 |
May-2017 | 43 |
Jun-2017 | 44 |
Jul-2017 | 39 |
Aug-2017 | 40 |
Sep-2017 | 33 |
Oct-2017 | 32 |
Nov-2017 | 31 |
Dec-2017 | 28 |
Jan-2018 | 34 |
Feb-2018 | 29 |
Mar-2018 | 36 |
Apr-2018 | 42 |
May-2018 | 43 |
Jun-2018 | 44 |
Jul-2018 | 44 |
Aug-2018 | 48 |
Sep-2018 | 45 |
Oct-2018 | 44 |
Nov-2018 | 40 |
Dec-2018 | 37 |
Jan-2019 | 45 |
Feb-2019 | 49 |
Mar-2019 | 62 |
Apr-2019 | 62 |
May-2019 | 58 |
Jun-2019 | 59 |
Jul-2019 | 64 |
Aug-2019 | 62 |
Sep-2019 | 50 |
Oct-2019 | 52 |
Nov-2019 | 50 |
Dec-2019 | 44 |
Jan-2020 | 51 |
Feb-2020 | 56 |
Mar-2020 | 60 |
Apr-2020 | 65 |
May-2020 | 64 |
Jun-2020 | 63 |
Jul-2020 | 63 |
Aug-2020 | 72 |
Sep-2020 | 61 |
Oct-2020 | 65 |
Nov-2020 | 51 |
Dec-2020 | 47 |
e) Compute and plot the tracking signal in a new chart.
f) Discuss the quality of this model. What is the flagrant flaw?
g) Suggest an approach that would yield better results in terms of forecast values, MAD, and tracking signal. An appropriate narrative argument is sufficient (i.e., one or two sentences). You do not need to do calculations for this part.
Note: The forecasting method is "Tahoe Salt" with linear trend
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