Month	Value
January	74
February	78
March	83
April	87
May	88
June	85
July	81
August	80
September	80
October	78
November	75
December

Using the same forecast values for problem 11, calculate a three-month weighted moving average with the following weights:

1/4 for the most recent observation

1/3 for the second most recent observation

2/5 for the third most recent observation

What is the MSE for the three-moving weighted average time series?

By comparing the four-month MVA from question 11 to the three-month WMVA, which forecast is better?

By comparing the exponential smoothing MVA at =.25 from question 11 to the three-month WMVA, which forecast is better?

Extra Credit - Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?