moolus / MAT-140-J2471 22EW2 Precalculus / Module Three / 3- 3-1 Discussion: Moore's Law Current Grade: 0.0 / 1.0 Remaining Time: Unlimited Discussion 3 Module Three Discussion Question: Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work. Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress. From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to O and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 101 = 10, 102 = 100, 103 = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,.1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc . The following is a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis . it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this. Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. inked to Memean is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 IBM 213 Stor 5,000,000,000 61-core Xeon Phi 8 8 8 + Apple A12 Bionic 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 8 cacheo Apple AT (dual core ARMS4 " mobile SOC ") 19 10 gwid core 2M L3 Itanium 2 Mckinley @ core 2 Dus Wolfdale 3M 100,000,000 ontium 4 Cedar Mill' AMD KB Pentium 4 Prescon C 50,000,000 tium 4 Wilamette Barton Pentium II MODAND*7 8 Ope inPARM Cortex-AS Transistor coun 10,000,000 5,000,000 1,000,000 Intel 80486 500,000 Intel 803860 808 9 ARM 3 100,000 Intel 80286 50,000 intel 80186 10,000 5,000 1,000 2008 2006 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 The date yer wikipedia m Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Rose The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. log(y) Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Our World Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. in Data This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are 11 linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 32 core AMD ERYBionic 10 10,000,000,00 fox One main Soc 5,000,000,000 12 -COMe POWER 89 Silicon Kirin 960 + Apple A12 Bior 8 8 8 . 8 9 000,000,00 AT (dual-core ARMS4 " mobile SOC") 500,000,000 40 1 10 quad-core 2M L3 scott-218 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M 8 100,000,00 AMD KB Pentium 4 C 50,000,00 Pentium 4 Willamette @ Pentium III Tualatin AMD K7 8 Pentium Il Coppermine PARM Cortex-Ag 7 Transistor count 10,000,000 AMD K6 8 op Plenty Blue 5,000,000 6 ,000,00 500,000 Intel 80386 1980 8 ARM 5 100,000 50,000 ARMA 4 10,000 5,000 Mgaggle 2489 Technoto 3 1.000 2002 200% 2008 2000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Data source: Wikipedia (table at OurWorldinData. org. There you find more visualiz Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction = 4,096,000 Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2014. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? How Did I Do? Try Another Save Quit & Save Previous Unit Item Next Unit Item