Morgan Stanley assigned a target price of $28 for SNAP. Using WACC how did they get to this target price? I am having trouble getting to the $28 number. I am unsure how to find the dividend to plug in the model.
Year 0 is 2017.
Thank you
218-095 -11- Exhibit 10 Morgan Stanley's Cash Flow Forecasts and Valuation Assumptions for Snap Inc. ($ millions) Financial Forecast ($ millions) Item 2016Act 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 TV Year (2026) Income Statement Net Revenue $405 $944 $1,935 $3,254 $4,902 $6,907 $9,189 $11,635 $14,131 $16,569 $17,149 Growth 589.5% 133.3% 105.0% 68.2% 50.6% 40.9% 33.0% 26.6% 21.4% 17.3% 3.5% Adj. EBITDA (Note 1) ($459) ($772) ($610) ($195) $363 $1,474 $2,616 $3,888 $5,223 $6,574 $6,804 Adj. EBITDA Margin (113.6%) (81.8%) (31.5%) (6.0%) 7.4% 21.3% 28.5% 33.4% 37.0% 39.7% 39.7% Cash Flow Items Cash Taxes $823 $1,448 Incr (Decr) in Net WC $151 $257 $228 $231 $228 $209 $224 $248 $207 $151 Capital Expenditures $67 $83 $97 $109 $120 $130 $140 $148 $155 $161 Stock-based Comp. $32 $75 $159 $203 $257 $317 $421 $533 $648 $759 Free Cash Flow ($709) ($1, 186) ($1,093) ($737) ($243) $818 $1,831 $2,958 $3,390 $4,054 $4,196 Morgan Stanley Valuation Assumptions Market Data (March 27, 2017 Cost of Debt 3.00% # Fully Diluted Shares (billions) 1,404 US Treasury Yields 27-Mar Future Leverage (D/V) 2% Excess Cash ($ mil) $2,081 30-Year 3.06% Tax Rate 35% 10-Year 2.38% Cost of Equity 9.90% Perpetual Growth Rate 3.5% Equity Risk Premium 5.59% Stated WACC 9.7% Source: Nowak, B., et al., "Crackle or Pop? Initiate OW, $28 PT," Snap Inc. analyst report Exhibit 5 (p. 7), Morgan Stanley Research, 3/27/17. Note 1: Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP item. It excludes stock-based compensation expense (a cash expense), but includes depreciation and amortization. Note 2: Morgan Stanley Equity Research Disclosure: Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. (p. 1 of the Snap Inc. analyst report, 3/27/17) Note 3: Morgan Stanley Code of Conduct: Our values inform everything we do: Putting Clients First, Leading with Exceptional Ideas, Doing the Right Thing and Giving Back. Our Code of Conduct reflects our continued commitment to performing all our business activities in accordance with these core values and in full alignment with the letter and spritit of applicable laws, regulations and our policies.... Putting Clients First requires us to place our clients' interests first and avoid conflicts between their interests and ours. Available at: https://www.morganstanley.com/ about-us-governance/code-of-conduct, accessed 3/18/18
