Mr. Bill recently borrowed $100 from the bank - he actually received $95 and is expected to payback $100 in one year. The bank estimates that there is a 98% probability that Mr. Bill will payback the entire $100 and a 2% probability of receiving zero. What rate of return does the bank expect to earn? If Mr. Bill believes there is a 100% probability that he will payback the loan, then what rate does Mr. Bill believe he is paying?